Weather in the NEWS

Winter approaches

Snowflake

Betting on a White Christmas?

At this time of year, the thoughts of some turn to the prospect of making a little money by gambling on the prospects of snow falling on Christmas Day. The chances are not in favour of the gambler! The chances of snow falling increases as you go further north (with odds decreasing as well!) but some bets will depend on snow falling on the roof of the London Weather Centre at some time during Christmas Day. The chances of this are not high - there have only been about 5 Christmases this century when snow has actually fallen on Christmas Day. Snow on the ground does not count - it must be falling!

This year, a Glasgow businesswoman placed 10,000 50p bets with William Hill, betting at odds of around 10 to 1 that there would be a white Christmas. She intends to give the betting slips to her customers - who each stand to win around £5 if snow does fall!

Seasons of the Sun.....

As Christmas approaches, the northern hemisphere moves towards its shortest day and the 'official' start of winter on December 21st - the Winter Solstice. In the north, days are short and the winter nights are long. Temperatures fall as the weak sunlight attempts to warm the northern landmasses. Southern latitudes experience their summer - with hot dry conditions across Australia and continuous hours of daylight in the far south of Antarctica.

Satellite images for 21st December 1998 - the Winter Solstice

GMS: 30th November 1998
The December solstice: click image for original GMS whole disk image
The diagram shows the winter conditions in the northern hemisphere - and is based on a real satellite image taken by the GMS orbiter above the Pacific Ocean on November 30th 1998 (to see the original image click the diagram above).

The plane of the Earth's orbit around the Sun lies at an angle of 23½° to the rotational axis of the Earth (the imaginary line - North/South - around which the Earth spins). As the Earth moves around the Sun in its year long orbit, the Sun appears to drift northwards during our summer and south during our winter. On December 21st, the Sun reaches its maximum southerly position. On this day, the Sun will appear to be directly overhead to anyone standing along a line around the world at 23½°S - the Tropic of Capricorn. Each day after this the Sun will seem to be overhead a little further north, on March 22nd it will appear overhead to anyone on the Equator then on June 21st it will appear overhead at 23½°N - the Tropic of Cancer.

Print out the larger image of the Earth - measure the angle between the North/South line and the line of the shadow across the globe.....

Is it nearly 23½°?
 
In the far south of Antarctica (at the South Pole), the Sun will never drop below the horizon during December and January. There will be 24 hour daylight with the Sun travelling right around the sky - dropping towards the southern horizon during what passes for night! Look at the diagram - as the Earth rotates, the area below the lower blue line will never experience total darkness.

In the far north, in the north of Norway, Greenland, Siberia etc, the complete opposite will be true. In December, the Sun is so low in the sky that it never climbs above the southern horizon - even at mid-day. A dim grey light is all that changes night into day - and if weather conditions are poor then there is likely to be no difference at all between night and day.

In the north, the low altitude of the Sun means that heat energy arriving at the Earth is spread over a large area - and the heating effect is low. Northern temperatures fall - and by mid-winter there will be ice and snow, maybe even across parts of the UK!

In the south, the strong solar radiation means higher temperatures and the heat and dust of summer across Australia and southern Africa. Christmas in the southern hemisphere is not ice and snow - it is summer and their Christmas carols are different!

Check out these two versions of an old favourite - one from the cold winter of the north and one from the hot dry Christmas summer of Australia.

Jingle Bells!


score
Northern version

Dashing through the snow,
in a one horse open sleigh,
o'er the fields we go,
laughing all the way.

Bells on bobtail ring,
making spirits bright,
what fun it is to ride and sing
a sleighing song tonight!

Jingle bells,
jingle bells,
jingle all the way!
Oh what fun it is to ride
in a one horse open sleigh!

Jingle bells,
jingle bells,
jingle all the way!
Oh what fun it is to ride in a one horse open sleigh!

Southern (Australian) version

Dashing through the bush
in a rusty Holden ute,
Kicking up the dust
Esky in the boot

Kelpie by my side
singing Christmas songs,
It's summer time and I am in my
singlet, shorts and thongs.

Jingle bells
jingle bells
jingle all the way,
Christmas in Australia
on a scorching summer's day

Jingle bells
jingle bells
Christmas time is beaut
Oh what fun it is to ride in a dusty Holden ute.

December infra red band image - DTOT
Meteosat 7 IR band image: mid-day 1st December 1998
This infra red band satellite image gives a good impression of the temperature range across the planet. Higher temperatures are indicated by darker colours - black is hot, white is cold. In the southern lands, temperatures are high at this time of year and the land shows up as strong black. In the north, temperatures are much lower and the land is a dull grey - Europe is almost invisible!. The coastline of Southern Africa is very clear, the dense black of the landmass shows than South West Africa is hot - and much hotter than the cold offshore ocean current welling up from the Antarctic. If you look closely you will be able to make out the slightly cooler waters of the Red Sea - colder (and thus a lighter grey) than the surrounding desert lands of Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

On a cold winter night, you may even be able to see that the land is colder than the sea - the sea will appear darker than the land. Check the thermal band IR images available from the Dundee Weather server. Under clear winter skies, the land loses heat energy by radiation and cools rapidly. There is so much water in the sea that it loses heat much less quickly - so its temperature remains higher. Check out the sea conditions at the automatic buoys around the UK - compare air and sea surface temperatures.

Launching the Space Shuttle

Good weather conditions are vital!

The recent launch of the US Space Shuttle Discovery with veteran astronaut John Glenn aboard, focussed attention once again on the US manned space flight program. Weather conditions are vital to ensure a safe launch - and the conditions for the launch of STS-95 were perfect.

For a Shuttle launch, weather 'outlooks' and trends for launch day begin 5 days before the expected lift-off.

STS95 lifts off from Kennedy Space Center
At all stages prior to the launch, weather forecasts are carefully checked and all flight operations staff and flight crew advised of possible conditions. The first stage of the launch process is to fuel the tanks of the booster rockets. The liquid fuel tanks contain liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen - an explosive mixture as was tragically demonstrated when Challenger blew up on take off. No fuelling can take place if the 24 hour average temperature has been below 5°C (41°F). If, after fuelling, the temperature exceeds 37°C (99°F) for more than 30 minutes then the countdown is stopped and the Shuttle will not be launched. The minimum launch temperature will vary according to wind and humidity - strong winds and high humidities can lower the temperature quite considerably.

No fuelling will take place if the wind speed is observed or forecast to exceed 42 knots. For the actual launch, the wind speed conditions vary with a maximum allowed wind speed of 30 knots. If the wind blows from a southerly direction (E through S to W) then the maximum wind speed is only 24 knots.

No launch will take place if rain (or other form of precipitation) is falling. Fuelling will not take place if there is a greater than 20% chance of lightning within 5 miles of the launch site. No actual launch will take place if lightning has been seen within 10 miles of the pad. Once lighting is seen the countdown is halted and will not start again until at least 30 minutes after the last flash or the clouds have moved more than 10 miles away.

Observers must be able to see the Shuttle to an altitude of at least 2,500m (8,000 feet). The Shuttle must not be launched through cloud.

All of these conditions apply at the launch site in Florida. In the event of an emergency, the Shuttle commander may decide to abort the mission and land at one of the emergency landing sites. Conditions at these airfields (in Spain and North Africa) must also be good imposing further restraints on the mission commanders.

Weather plays an important part in ensuring a safe launch. Accurate observations and continuous local forecasts are essential to ensure the safety of the flight crew and all those in the immediate area.


Earlier news pages are also available:

  • November 1998 - Hurricane Mitch - one of the most severe hurricanes of this century wreaks havoc across Nicaragua and Honduras
  • October 1998 - Typhoons hit Philippines and Japan - Winter weather warnings for the UK
  • September 1998 - Atlantic hurricane season under way
  • Summer 98 - information about conditions in June and July.

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Page update: December 1998